Transcription

On Sunday June 9, after the results of the European elections were announced, French President Emmanuel Macron made a big announcement.

His decision came as a shock and a surprise in France.

Welcome to another episode of Learn French with News.

As usual, don't forget to download the vocabulary sheet we'll be covering in this video.

Today, we're going to talk about the latest political mobility news in France.

The last time a French president took such a decision for the country was in 1997, over 25 years ago.

So let's take a look at what happened on June 9 and what the consequences might be for the country.

On Sunday, June 9, 2024, European elections were held in all member countries of the European Union, including France.

At the end of this election, at the end of this vote, one party in France was the big winner. It was the Rassemblement National.

This party won 31.4% of the vote.

That's almost 10% more for this party than in the previous European elections in 2019.

Rassemblement National is a far-right party.

That's how he's seen on the French political scene and by the Conseil d'Etat.

You may know this party through one of its emblematic figures, Marine Le Pen.

In the two previous presidential elections, she was in the run-off against Emmanuel Macron. But the head of the list, and therefore the main candidate for these European elections, for this party, the Rassemblement National, was Jordan Bardella, who is the party president.

Jordan Bardella is quite young at 28.

Throughout his campaign, Jordan Bardella explained that if he won this European election, if his party won the European election, he would ask Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the Assembly.

Dissolving the Assembly means cancelling the mandates of the deputies, thus dismissing them, and asking the French people to vote again to re-elect new deputies for the National Assembly, which is the Parliament in France.

Many political journalists were saying that it was unlikely that Emmanuel Macron would take this decision, and therefore dissolve the Assembly.

Why did this decision seem so unlikely? Quite simply because today, the group with the most seats in the National Assembly is Emmanuel Macron's party. And yet, on the evening of June 9, Emmanuel Macron spoke following the result and victory of the Rassemblement National in the European elections.

He said he wanted to take into account the opinion and the word of the French people, and therefore dissolve the National Assembly. This means there will be a new vote to elect deputies.

These elections will be organized very quickly.

He also announced this on the evening of June 9. The first round of these elections will take place on June 30 and the second round on July 7, so in about a month's time, which is very fast.

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Let's move on to the media analysis of Emmanuel Macron's announcement.

Naturally, the media reacted swiftly to the announcement that the National Assembly would be dissolved. News channels stepped up their debates with political personalities, columnists and journalists, to give their opinions on the current situation and make projections on what would happen in the coming weeks and even months.

Some columnists, some journalists have spoken of a democratic act on the part of Emmanuel Macron, since he is giving the people back their say after these European elections with a fairly significant result.

Indeed, the results of these European elections show that there is a big gap between the opinion of the people and the composition of the National Assembly as it stands today.

Others, however, have criticized the decision, calling it a risky political maneuver that could lead to government instability and thus difficulties in governing the country.

Indeed, if the outcome of these new elections follows that of the Europeans, we could end up, for example, with a rather liberal President, Emmanuel Macron, and a far-right Prime Minister.

This would mean that the country could be very complicated to govern with such political opposition.

Some people also think it's Emmanuel Macron's strategy to put the far right in government right now to show the people, to show the French, that it's not a good solution.

This would enable Emmanuel Macron's party to have more strength to have more chances of winning at the next presidential elections in 2027 and to diminish, to reduce the influence of the Rassemblement national.

Let's move on to the reactions of the various political parties.

These reactions, too, were not long in coming.

The Rassemblement National was naturally delighted with this announcement, seeing it as a great opportunity to strengthen their power in the National Assembly, and thus win more seats.

Left-wing parties such as the Parti Socialiste and France Insoumise have been more cautious about this decision. Preparing for legislative elections can take time, and we don't have much of that here.

And for the various left-wing parties, it's essential to unite in order to stand in the way of the far-right party.

And also, by getting together, to have as many MPs as possible.

However, it can be difficult for the various left-wing parties to unite, because they don't always have the same ideas.

Particularly during this campaign for the European elections, some left-wing candidates from different parties attacked each other.

So the union may seem a little difficult all the same.

The Republicans, France's traditional right-wing party, have expressed concern about this decision, and all that it could imply in terms of instability in the country.

And finally, Renaissance, so Emmanuel Macron's party, the party of the presidential majority, is committed to running a dynamic campaign so with a lot of energy, to keep all its current seats.

But what are the potential consequences for the government?

The dissolution of the Assembly on the one hand, and early parliamentary elections on the other, could have major consequences for Emmanuel Macron's current government.

If the Rassemblement National wins a majority, it could bring about a radical change in government policies, in the way the country is governed.

And it would also promise a rather difficult cohabitation with the President. In France, when we talk about cohabitation in the political sector, we're talking about a situation where the head of state, i.e. the president, and the head of government, the prime minister, are politically opposed.

In France, for example, we've already had a right-wing president and a left-wing prime minister.

So it's very difficult to govern in these conditions, to reach agreement.

If we follow the results of the European elections, this means that the Rassemblement National could win between 243 and 305 seats.

So that's a lot more than its current 89 seats.

The absolute majority in Parliament is set at 289 seats.

This would mean that Jordan Bardella's party, the Rassemblement National, could have an absolute majority in the National Assembly.

According to the same data, the Rassemblement National would be in the lead, far ahead of the current Renaissance majority party.

They could only win between 117 and 165 seats, far fewer than in the previous parliamentary elections, when they won 246.

So that was in 2022.

But the main consequence, if the Rassemblement National wins these elections, is that Emmanuel Macron would probably have to appoint a far-right Prime Minister.

There's no legal obligation to do so, but it's implicit.

Because if he doesn't, and the Rassemblement National has a majority in the National Assembly, he could endlessly vote what are known as motions of censure.

It's a process that can bring down the government.

So he could constantly force the government to resign.

And he could do so until he gets the number of ministers he wants, or a Prime Minister from his own party.

That's not the objective either.

That's why it's very likely that if the far right wins the election, we'll have a far-right Prime Minister in France.

This Prime Minister is also free to propose his government to the President, probably with a majority of ministers coming from his party.

In any case, Emmanuel Macron's decision places France in a period of political uncertainty where the results of these upcoming legislative elections, these early elections, will be decisive for the country's future.

That's it, this video is over.

I hope you enjoyed it.

If you're interested in French politics, if you're interested in French news, I'd really advise you to follow what's going to happen in France over the next few weeks and months, because it's going to be pretty interesting.

Don't forget you can download the free vocabulary sheet from this video to review everything we've seen today.

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I'll see you soon.